November 22nd, 2010

Today in class 


In the world of today, as well as for the foreseeable future, the world’s only population billionaires are China and India — at 1.35 billion and 1.21 billion, respectively. Even so, these two population giants are on distinctly different demographic paths. Joseph Chamie, former director of the United Nations Population Division, explains.


Together, China and India currently contain nearly two out of every five people in the world - and are equal in size to the world population in 1950. 


China's and India's unprecedented demographic status will not be challenged at any time soon.The next five most populous countries far behind them are": the United States (318 million), Indonesia (223 million), Brazil (195 million), Pakistan (185 million) and Bangladesh (164 million). 



China’s and India’s demographic size may also be appreciated by noting that each of their populations is larger than those of Africa, Europe or the entire Western hemisphere.

On virtually every population measure, China is further along in its demographic transition than India. With respect to mortality, for example, life expectancy at birth in China is nearly 10 years higher than in India, at 73 years versus 64 years. China’s population is also much older than India’s, with median ages of 34 and 25 years, respectively.


Also, while most Chinese and Indians still live in rural areas - 55% and 70% respectively - China will soon become predominately urban, perhaps as early as 2015. In contrast, India is expected to remain mainly rural at least until mid - century. 


Due to the enormous size of their populations, international migration plays a demographically negligible role in the growth of China and India. However, both have expressed official objections about illegal immigration into their countries, in particular from North Korea and Bangladesh, respectively.


In addition, the two countries have sizable numbers of their citizens living abroad for study and employment. To aid and benefit from their non-resident citizens, China and India have established government offices - the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council and the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs. 


Without a doubt, the most notable and consequential demographic trend for the growth of these two billionaire nations concerns fertility. 


Although fertility levels in the mid - 1950s were about the same in the two countries - at six children per woman - fertility rates have declined much faster in China than India, due in part to China's one child family policy. Today, China's fertility is below replacement and one child less than India's - 1.8 compared to 2.8 children per woman. 


With its higher birth rates and younger age structure, India's population is growing more than twice as fast as China's - 1.4% versus 0.6% annually. The demographic outcomes of these growth rates are annual addition of approximately 17 million Indians and 8 million Chinese. In addition, India's annual population increase exceeded China's in each of the past 20 years.  


Both China and India have significantly more males than females, in sharp contrast to demographics in most other nations. The atypical gender imbalance is due in part to the use of prenatal ultra sound scanning to abort female fetuses.